September 17, 2024
Janssen and Ladfors conducted a validation study of a model to predict cesarean birth based on factors measurable on admission to hospital. They conducted a retrospective cohort study in a regional hospital in British Columbia, Canada among healthy nulliparous women in spontaneous labour, at term, with a singleton fetus in cephalic position. Applying the previously published Janssen predictive model to the new hospital cohort resulted in a C-statistic of 0.77. The mean predicted risk score for CS in the cohort was 0.30 ± 0.20. Sensitivity and specificity of 69 % was achieved. The model was tested among subgroups defined by caregivers. The authors concluded that a model with variables easily accessible at admission to intrapartum care can predict caesarean birth with acceptable accuracy among nulliparous women. Use of this model may guide care according to risk status with the overall goal of promoting vaginal birth.
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